Calgary and Area - 2024 Economic and Housing Market Trends

Calgary & Region Yearly Outlook Report

Calgary & Region Yearly Outlook Report

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) held its annual conference on Jan 23, 2024. Attended by Calgary and area Realtors, the conference aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the economic and housing market trends in Calgary and its surrounding regions for the upcoming year. We at REMAX ACA Realty are excited to share this summary with you.

2023 Housing Market Review

While there were signs of improvement in new listings towards the end of the year, they materialized later than anticipated. This delay contributed to the persistence of sellers’ market conditions throughout the year, leading to higher-than-expected price growth.

The report also delves into the impact of rising lending rates on the housing sector, as buyers looked for more affordable housing options, and some potential sellers held back from listing to navigate the challenges posed by higher lending rates.

Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie underscores this dynamic, stating, "Despite higher rates, 2023 was a year of relatively strong sales thanks to a robust labour market and strong migration. The challenge was limited supply, especially for low-priced homes with the strongest demand. This resulted in significant price growth with the largest gains in our lowest-priced homes.”

Looking Ahead to 2024

As the report looks ahead to 2024, Lurie anticipates another strong year for sales, stating, "We expect potential buyers, who were on the sidelines due to limited supply choices, to re-enter the market as lending rates ease and listings improve. At the same time, interprovincial migration and a healthy labour market should continue to support stronger sales activity.”

Supply remains an issue this year, but gains in new home starts and new listings are expected to support some modest gains.

“Conditions are not expected to be as tight as in 2023," Lurie said, "but supply growth takes time, and sellers’ market conditions are expected to persist through the spring, driving further price growth in 2024.”

Supply growth is anticipated to be driven mainly by upper price ranges, decelerating the pace of price growth for higher-priced properties. Meanwhile, lower-priced properties are expected to face continued tight conditions, contributing to sustained price gains.  

Contributing Factors to 2024 Forecast

  • Migration is expected to slow, but remain robust enough to sustain relatively strong sales in our market.  

  • The province is expected to outperform most others, primarily due to the resilience of its energy sector.

  • The new home sector has responded to the recent rise in migration, but ultimately the level of construction will have to be more in-line with the migration figures before we see a substantial adjustment in supply.

  • The elevated interest rates successfully reduced inflation to three per cent by the close of 2023.

  • The employment sector’s sustained growth is expected to continue supporting housing activity into 2024.

  • Anticipated to persist throughout 2024 is that the rental demand remains strong as migrants arriving in the city require housing.

Airdrie Real Estate Forecast

Airdrie Real Estate Forecast

Airdrie: While supply levels are expected to improve next year, it will take time for the market to rebalance, likely supporting further price growth in 2024.

 

Note on Compositional Shifts

While benchmark prices reflect the typical home, compositional shifts have impacted total residential price growth.

Price growth for each property type has exceeded the city’s overall total residential price growth, as lower-priced apartment condominium sales account for a larger share of the total residential price. As we move into 2024, we are forecasting slower price growth for each property type in the city. However, with less compositional shift impacts in the market expected in 2024, total residential prices are expected to grow at a similar pace to last year.

Relative Affordability - The housing market conditions vary across the country. Recent reports highlight a trend of easing prices in markets such as Toronto and Vancouver, signalling a shift in favour of the buyer. Conversely, in Calgary, home prices have been on the rise as conditions persistently favour the seller. Despite these recent gains, our market remains relatively affordable compared to the country’s two largest markets.

The Calgary Real Estate Board remains committed to providing valuable insights to industry professionals and the public, fostering informed decision-making in the ever-evolving real estate landscape.

Click here for the full CREB® 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

For more information, please contact:
 
Economic Analysis
Email: stats@creb.ca
Phone: 403-263-0530

Contact REMAX ACA Realty If you would like to discuss your local market around Airdrie, Crossfield, Carstairs, Didsbury, Olds, Sundre, Mountain View County.